The Economic Crisis in Venezuela: How Hugo Chavez Squandered An Oil Boom.
December 28, 2009
by Kimberly Ruff
Our current economic recession has led many to question the value and function of both our government and the marketplace in their current incarnations. For every libertarian who recognizes the government tampering in market forces is to blame, there is an authoritarian who worries that government is not tampering enough. What happens to a relatively healthy market, however, when you allow a power-hungry dictator to tamper with it?
On December 2, 2007, Venezuelan voters turned down a series of amendments to the Bolívarian Constitution of 1999 (Rodríguez, 2008a). The 32 proposed changes included putting the autonomous Central Reserve Bank under presidential control, removing the two-term limit for president, and giving the government greater control over the country’s petroleum and gas deposits (Fraser, 2008). This was the first electoral defeat for Venezuela’s bombastic president, Hugo Chávez, since sweeping into office in 1998 (Fraser, 2008). Supporters and critics alike were stunned (Rodríguez, 2008a). How could the man – whose campaign slogan was “Con Chávez manda el pueblo1” (Cameron, 2001) and who consistently publicly announces all the good work he is doing for Venezuela’s sizable poor population (Rodríguez, 2008a) – have his beloved people turn against him at the ballot box? The answer lies in the gross mismanagement of Venezuela’s economy during its first oil boom since 1970 and the strengthening of executive control under Chávez.
The popular wisdom on Chávez is that he is the champion of Venezuela’s poor. It was on this platform that Chávez took office in 1998, breaking the stronghold of the two major political parties, Acción Democrática (AD) and the Christian Democrats (COPEI). (Cameron, 2001). Shortly after taking the oath, Chávez called a Constituent Assembly and rewrote the Constitution of 1961 (Cameron, 2001), infusing it with Marxist ideology for 21st Century Socialism (Lebowitz, 2008). Chávez, a Populist, has openly rejected Capitalism, arguing that it must be transcended in order to end the poverty of the world (Lebowitz, 2008). His solution is a “humanist” socialism “which puts humans and not machines or the state ahead of everything” (Lebowitz, 2008, p. 1). His plan includes, among other things, “subsidiz[ing] food to low-income families, redistribut[ing] land and wealth, and pour[ing] money from Venezuela’s booming oil industry into health and education” (Rodríguez, 2008a, p. 49). It would appear that these reforms are working; according to 2007 Social Panorama of Latin America, between 2002 and 2006, poverty decreased by 18.4 percent and extreme poverty by 12.3 percent (Alvarez Herrera, 2008). Yet, remarkably little empirical evidence exists to suggest that Chávez – or his reforms – were responsible for these changes (Rodríguez, 2008a). According to Rodríguez (2008b), when looking at actual indicators of spending directed at poor, such as education, health and housing, “the share of spending devoted to these categories has been essentially unchanged during the Chávez administration” (p. 160).
In fact, it’s only gotten worse. After the political and economic crisis of 2002-3, in which a two-month long national strike resulted in a failed coup attempt and the takeover of the state owned oil company PVDSA by Chávez loyalists, the pace of change has accelerated, taking on three basic dimensions (Rodríguez, 2008a). First, state control has increased. Government expenditures have risen to 29.4 percent of the GDP, inflating GDP and giving the false perception of an increase in national output. Key sectors have been nationalized, such as electricity, telecommunications (Rodríguez, 2008a), cement (Civil Engineering, 2008), and steel (New York Times, 2008), eliminating healthy competition, thereby allowing an incline in cost and a decline in quality. Furthermore, fear of future nationalizing of industries discourages foreign investors. According to Rodríguez (2008a), since Chávez loyalists took control of PVDSA, Venezuelans witnessed a dramatic decline in oil-production capacity, with OPEC statistics showing the country only produces three-quarters of its 3.3 million barrels a day (p. 60). Second, price and wages have been set through a “web of restrictions in place since 2002” (Rodríguez, 2008a, p. 51). Price and wage ceilings and floors force the Invisible Hand and disrupt the economic equilibrium achieved by supply and demand; ceilings discourage supply as producers see no incentive to produce, and floors discourage demand as consumers typically opt-out of consumption if they can. Third, security of private property has deteriorated as private firms and landholdings have been expropriated by the government (Rodríguez, 2008a). The destabilization of private property discourages entrepreneurship, as the loss of property is deemed too risky for potential businessmen. All these factors are connected in a vicious, self-reinforcing loop: a steep decline in the quantity and quality of production resulting in a sharp increase in prices, causing the government to pump more money into the economy, nationalize industry, and enact price controls, all of which, in turn, discourage production and lead to its decline in quantity and quality. Currently, Venezuela is in the midst of another economic crisis in which inflation rates reached as high as 3% in December 2007 (Economist, 2008a). Rather than curb the expansion of government spending, Chávez has rejected this as “neoliberal dogma” (Rodríguez, 2008a, p. 57).
In effect, Chávez’ populist reforms have created an economic monster.
Further compounding this problem is the consolidation of power in the executive branch under Chávez. A former military officer, Chávez first gained public recognition when he led an abortive coup against then-President, Carlos Andrés Pérez in 1992 (Cameron, 2001). Despite finally assuming power through democratic elections, Chávez continually returns to his military roots by using the military for public works projects, referencing his former affiliation in his speeches, and wearing military attire (Cameron, 2001). Backed by military hard-liners and former members of his failed coup attempt that were reintroduced into the military after he took power, Chávez has fashioned an image of himself similar to that of his Cuban ally, Dictator Fidel Castro (Cameron, 2001). This attitude is more than skin-deep. Beginning with his rewriting of Venezuela’s Constitution in 1999, Chávez has created a legacy of stifling dissent. His Bolívarian Constitution does more than simply outline his economic plan for the country: members of rival political parties, COPEI and AD, are forbidden from holding any office; the judicial and legislative branches have been reduced to mere skeletons of what they once were; the presidential term lengths were increased to six years; and the Executive Branch, which originally had the ability to make decrees on economic matters only, has been given the right to do so on any topic (Cameron, 2001). His December 2007 referendum would have only added to this.
Yet, as history has shown us, great power not only comes with great responsibility – it comes with great paranoia. In early June of 2008, Chávez issued a decree that created a “new intelligence and counter-intelligence system which in the name of national security enlists the entire population in what could potentially amount to a spy network” (Economist, 2008b). Reversed a week later after considerable public outcry (Economist, 2008d), this decree would have authorized warrantless police raids and the use of anonymous witnesses and secret evidence, requiring all citizens to act in support whenever required or risk jail time of up to six years (Economist, 2008b). Under Chávez, the country has become has been polarized between “friends” and “enemies” to such a degree that even respectful disagreement comes with heavily publicized denouncements from Chávez (Cameron, 2001). In order to insulate himself from criticism, he has surrounded himself with sycophants who refuse to tell him he’s wrong even when his economic decisions are clearly destroying Venezuela.
Given the recent history of Venezuela, it stands to reason that, despite having elections, there’s relatively little in the way of democracy to suggest it still is one. Although much debate exists as to what factors are necessary for democracy (Dahl, 2003), the general consensus is that free and fair elections are one of the requirements (Diamond, 2008). While Chávez may give his constituents choices when it comes time to go to the polls, the Bolívarian Constitution has prevented members of COPEI and AD as well as anyone “identified” as having a reputation for lack of integrity from running (Cameron, 2001). Additionally, the nationalization of the telecommunications industry further prevents political competition from publicity (Rodríguez, 2008a). Although his second six-year term limit comes to an end in 2011, it’s difficult to imagine Chávez going quietly into the night (Economides, 2008).
The story of Hugo Chávez demands change. No longer is he the champion of Venezuela’s poor who, through a series of sweeping reforms, took the oil profits of the fourth largest producer in the world and turned it into a socialist utopia. Rather, he is a deeply insecure, erratic man who preached economic equality and yet served to only widen the gap between the wealthy and the poor. This is a something Venezuelans are starting to realize. Hence, his stunning referendum defeat at the polls on December 2, 2007.
1. Translation: With Chávez, the people rule.
A Funny Way to Beat Inflation (2008a). Venezuela’s economy. Economist (387) 8585, pp. 50 – 52.
Alvarez Herrera, B. (2008). How Chávez has helped the poor. Foreign Affairs (87) 4, pp. 158 – 160.
A police state? (2008b). Venezuela. Economist (387) 8583, p 50.
Bloomberg News (2008). Venezuela: Steel company is nationalized. New York Times (05/13/2008), p. 9.
Cameron, M. A. & Major, F. (2001). Venezuela’s Hugo Chávez: Savior or threat to democracy? Latin American Research Review (36) 3, pp. 255 – 265.
Dahl, R.A., Shapiro, I. & Cheibub, J. A. (2003). The democracy sourcebook. Camden, MA: The MIT Press.
Diamond, L. (2008). The democratic rollback: The resurgence of the predatory state. Foreign Affairs (87) 2, pp. 36 – 48.
Economides, M. J. (2008). Will Venezuelan powder keg soon explode? Human Events (64) 16, pp. 1 – 6.
Fraser, B. (2008). Hugo Chávez has a mission – and oil. National Catholic Reporter (44) 19, pp. 16 – 17.
News Briefs. (2008). Cement nationalized in Venezuela. Civil Engineering, (78) 5, p. 37.
Master Tactician or Failing Bungler? (2008d) Hugo Chávez. Economist (387) 8584, pp. 47 – 8.
Rodríguez, F. (2008a). An empty revolution: The unfulfilled promises of Hugo Chávez. Foreign Affairs (87) 2, pp. 49 – 62.
Rodríguez, F. (2008b). How Chávez has helped the poor. Foreign Affairs (87) 4, p. 160 – 162.
ivan navarro, on 12/28/2009 at 7:41pm, said:
you need to expand your scope of references. Maybe learn some Spanish and get a different perspective. I live here in Venezuela and things have never been better. Remember he inherited a shit-hole of a country. There is bound to be some growing pains. To tell you the honest truth, the so-called Democracy you think you have in the U.S. (I lived there about 30 years. I know) pales in comparison to the democratic spirit here. For once people can enjoy their country's resources and live well. IÂ´m tired of the lazy journalism of the U.S. It's a big disappointment. For a country that prides itself on the freedom of speech, there's amazingly little information on the world
The Author, on 12/29/2009 at 1:09pm, said:
@ Ivan Navarro: I agree that my article could have used more references. I do speak Spanish, but as a libertarian I don't agree with Chavez's economic and political methods. I also recognize that the United States, while calling itself a democracy, is not. Thank you for your feedback.
Jason, on 1/01/2010 at 10:17pm, said:
The CEPR report is a good source of economic / social indicators :
Note that tax on foreign companies oil revenues went from 1% to 33% under Chavez. So he "squandered" the chance to let all the wealth leave his country.
Jason, on 1/01/2010 at 10:21pm, said:
You see he squandered the wealth which should have gone to foreign oil companies on pesky poor people! Bloody leftie nutjob! Quote from the CEPR Report :
"Among the highlights:
* The current economic expansion began when the government got control over the national oil company in the first quarter of 2003. Since then, real (inflation-adjusted) GDP has nearly doubled, growing by 94.7 percent in 5.25 years, or 13.5 percent annually.
* Most of this growth has been in the non-oil sector of the economy, and the private sector has grown faster than the public sector.
* During the current economic expansion, the poverty rate has been cut by more than half, from 54 percent of households in the first half of 2003 to 26 percent at the end of 2008. Extreme poverty has fallen even more, by 72 percent. These poverty rates measure only cash income, and do not take into account increased access to health care or education.
* Over the entire decade, the percentage of households in poverty has been reduced by 39 percent, and extreme poverty by more than half.
* There have been substantial gains in education, especially higher education, where gross enrollment rates more than doubled from 1999-2000 to 2007-2008.
* Over the past decade, the number of social security beneficiaries has more than doubled.
* Real (inflation-adjusted) social spending per person more than tripled from 1998-2006."
Juan, this is not new. I know for a fact that people over 60 -after doing wtevehar diligencia they ought to do- have been getting their pension, monthly, on time, without problem for a while now. I think in Xmas they get a bonus of some sort. Crucially, this has also been applied to an extent to amas de casa. They have to pay up what would have amounted to minimum contribution over a number of years, as if in regular employment, and then they too get their pension.This, I will say without compunctions, is one of the things we should all give credit to Chavez for. It is one of the really good things that he's done, and he should be commended for it. I think we can all remember, back in the day, viejitos protesting and blocking Av. Urdaneta for lack of payment of meagre pensions, which at the time, in memory serves, was well below minimum salary.As per the video, I agree with you. Extremely difficult to argue against that. The extraordinary thing about chavismo's propaganda has been that it identified very early the need to communicate to its constituency in visual terms, through imagery. Indeed the use of imagery for propaganda purposes is another thing we should all give credit to Chavez, not because he invented it, after all Socialist Realism can be traced back to other places, but the adaptation of it within the contemporary Venezuelan political context can only be attributed to whoever handles the propaganda for Chavez. In fact, as far as successful methods of communicating a given message, it is important to note that use of imagery by chavismo, and association of red with Bolivar -an icon already well established in the Venezuelan psyche- surpasses wtevehar literary or indeed any other communication method used by chavismo to date. Chavismo is yet to produce a half coherent manifesto or statement of principles of what socialism of the XXI century means, whereas it has unquestionably and successfully sold it to a great deal of people in Venezuela.Chavez knows his constituent very well, he knows they are, for the most part, poorly educated. It follows that poorly educated folks don't question images, communication through imagery is processed differently, and it goes in pretty much unchallenged. What he's done in that regard is a stroke of genius, and no amount of HCR, Maria Corina, et al is going to change that.On the other hand however, successful as he is in conveying his message, the truly titanic struggle isn't there Juan. Rather it has to do with his unlimited spending power. That, and no other, is Chavez's more lethal weapon. In a country of pediguef1os, of people that want to get something for nothing, of people who are convinced that the State has to solve each and every issue or give them the hard cold cash so they can do it themselves, there's no beating Chavez, even when it means having to queue, register, and chase monies around different misiones.
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